During the Spring Festival, the risk is strong, and silver rises sharply to break the bottom consoli-xpphone

During the Spring Festival, the strong strong rise above the silver hedge gold star Zhong Siqian the bottom of the consolidation Chinese overview: last week for the Spring Festival holiday, but the global market volatility is not so calm. The volatility of global stock markets has triggered a rise in risk aversion, with the yen, treasury bonds and gold and silver prices soaring. In the United States, the new round of sanctions against North Korea has been finalized, and the Korean Peninsula has shown signs of warming up. Hedge buying needs to dominate last week’s rebound in silver, which has risen to a new high of eight months, showing signs of building up in the short term. First, macroeconomic situation analysis 1, the global stock market turmoil, MSCI global index fell into a bear market. Last week, Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the possibility of negative interest rates could not be ruled out. News triggered the global stock market volatility: Asia, Japan’s stock market tumbled 11% last week, Hongkong stock market fell 5% on two; European stock market fell by 4%; after the fall of U.S. stocks rebounded Friday, but the S & P 500 index still fell by 0.8%. The MSCI global index fell 20% from its May 2015 high point, announcing a technical bear market. The volatility of the stock market reflects the market’s expectations for the US economic growth to pessimism, the global economic outlook is more bleak, investors sell risky assets, and yen, treasury bonds and gold and silver and other hedge asset prices rose. Silver under the influence of hedge demand, short-term rose to eight months high. 2, the United States through sanctions against North Korea, Saudi Arabia sent Syria detonated the Middle East pattern. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to impose tougher sanctions on North Korea, intended to contain North Korea’s plans to develop nuclear missiles. Earlier, the United States deployed in Korea "Sade" anti missile system, making the situation on the Korean Peninsula more tense. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates say they will send ground action forces into Syria, hoping to restart the crackdown against Islamic States, and the civil war in Syria continues to heat up. The deterioration of the conflict between the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East, which is more conducive to rising demand for security risks, has become another major factor supporting the rebound of the silver market. 3, CFTC futures gold bull surge, silver rally support. CFTC position report shows that in February 9th, the weekly futures gold speculative net position increased by 37291 to 72912 contracts. Futures gold long positions continue to increase, and a larger increase, suggesting that the risk aversion still dominate the market, this week silver material will continue to rebound trend. Two, position analysis deadline Beijing time in February 15th, the world’s largest gold ETF position is 710.95 tons, an increase of 20.9 tons over last week; the world’s largest silver ETF position is 9710.19 tons, an increase of 118.47 tons over last week. Three, technical analysis of spot silver daily chart shows: bottom uplink channel broken, and rose before breaking high 3342. The 200 day moving average is broken, and the medium and short term moving average is arranged in a long way. But the end of the K-line build top, CCI indicators brewing off the top, short-term material callback. MACD index to maintain more bullish, short-term callback can do more than bargain. Five, the market outlook this week, the focus of attention Thursday morning American monetary policy conference summary of January. The fed at the January meeting

春节期间避险走强 白银强势升破底部盘整   文 黄金之星 钟思倩   总览:上周为中国春节假期,但全球市场波动并未因此平静。全球股市剧烈动荡,引发避险情绪大涨,日元、国债和黄金白银价格大涨。美国方面,对朝鲜新一轮制裁敲定,朝鲜半岛问题有升温迹象。避险买需主导上周白银大幅反弹,目前已升至八个月新高,短线出现筑顶迹象。   一、宏观经济形势分析   1、全球股市剧烈动荡,MSCI全球指数跌入熊市。   上周美联储主席耶伦讲话称,不排除实施负利率的可能。消息引发全球股市剧烈波动:亚洲方面,日本股市上周重挫11%,香港股市两日累计下跌5%;欧洲股市累计下跌4%,美股大跌后周五反弹,但标普500指数仍累计下跌0.8%。MSCI全球指数自2015年5月高点跌下20%,宣布进入技术性熊市。股市剧烈动荡体现市场对美国经济增长的预期转向悲观,全球经济前景更加黯淡,投资者纷纷抛售风险资产,日元、国债和金银等避险资产价格大涨。白银在避险需求的影响下,短线大涨至八个月新高。   2、美国通过对朝鲜制裁,沙特派兵叙利亚引爆中东格局。   美国众议院高票通过对朝鲜实施更严厉制裁的法案,意欲遏制朝鲜发展核导弹的计划。此前美国在韩国部署“萨德”反导系统,使得朝鲜半岛局势越发紧张。沙特与阿联酋称将派遣地面行动部队进入叙利亚,意欲重新启动针对伊斯兰国的打击行动,叙利亚内战持续升温。朝鲜半岛与中东地区冲突恶化,更加助涨避险需求,成为支撑白银反弹的另一大主要因素。   3、CFTC期货黄金多头暴增,白银涨势得到支撑。   CFTC持仓报告显示,2月9日当周期货黄金投机性净头寸增加37291手合约,至72912手合约。期货黄金多头持仓持续增加,且增加幅度较大,暗示避险情绪仍然主导市场,本周白银料将延续反弹趋势。   二、持仓分析   截止北京时间2月15日全球最大黄金ETF持仓量为710.95吨,比上周增加20.9吨;全球最大白银ETF持仓量为9710.19吨,比上周增加118.47吨。   三、技术分析   现货白银日线图显示:底部上行通道升破,并升破前高3342。200日均线升破,中短期均线呈多头排列,中短线涨势猛烈。但K线尾端筑顶,CCI指标酝酿顶背离,短线料有回调。MACD指标维持看多,短线回调可逢低做多。   五、行情展望   本周消息面重点关注周四凌晨美国1月货币政策会议纪要。1月会议上美联储宣布维持利率水平不变,但提示当前经济放缓已对美国经济增长造成不利影响。美联储主席在上周的讲话中也暗示存在重新宽松的可能。关注会议纪要对目前经济环境和美国经济前景的表述,若会议纪要偏鸽,将继续利好白银反弹,反之则将打压白银高位回跌。白银短线出现见顶迹象,但整体上行趋势不变,周内操作可采取逢低做多的策略。当周压力位3280、3350、3400,支撑线3200、3140、3080。   周内交易策略:   现货白银:建议在3140附近多,止盈3240-3280,止损3100。   现货铜:建议在29500附近多,止盈30400,止损29100。   现货铝:建议在9700附近多,止盈10100,止损9500。   现货镍:建议在52附近多,止盈56,止损50。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: